Insights - Crypto Market Pulse: March 2026

The cryptocurrency market posted its first monthly gain of the year in March, breaking a five‑month losing streak. The rebound was mainly supported by fresh inflows into BTC spot ETFs, as investors used lower post‑correction prices to rebuild Bitcoin exposure and rotate out of traditional safe havens. Looking ahead, with the Iran conflict now largely de‑escalated and overall risk appetite gradually improving.

Market Performance Overview – March Delivers First Gain of the Year, Breaking a Five‑Month Losing Streak

The cryptocurrency market finally broke its five-month losing streak in March, with total market capitalization rising 1.28% from $2.35tn to $2.38tn. The first half of the month saw a solid rebound, supported by renewed inflows into Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins and growing institutional interest in Ethereum-related products, pushing total market cap to an intra-month peak of $2.64tn on 17 March. In the second half of March, the market saw a partial pullback in the second half of the month, and overall risk appetite turned more cautious.

Figure 1. Crypto Market Cap in March 2026

Source: Coingecko, MicroBit, as of 31 Mar, 2026

Bitcoin posted a modest gain of approximately 1.8% in March. In the first half of the month, prices staged a strong rebound as spot and ETF inflows returned, and some investors used BTC as a partial hedge against geopolitical uncertainty amid escalating Iran war headlines, helping the price briefly break above the $75k level and delivering an intra-month gain of about 14.4% at the peak. As investors took profits at higher levels, combined with lingering uncertainties around the macroeconomic and regulatory outlook and growing fatigue toward the Iran conflict, BTC upward momentum slowed in the second half of the month, retracing part of its earlier gains and eventually returning to month-end levels.

Figure 2. BTC Monthly Return

Source: Coinglass, MicroBit, as of 31 Mar, 2026。Investment involves risks. Past performance does not represent future performance.

Figure 3. BTC Price Change

Source: Coingecko, MicroBit, as of 31 Mar 2026. Investment involves risks. Past performance does not represent future performance.

ETH exhibited greater price volatility than Bitcoin in March, rising more in the first half as speculative and leveraged flows rotated into ETH, then falling more in the second half as selling pressure mounted from investors who had aggressively bought earlier, resulting in a more significant pullback.

Figure 4. ETH Price Change

Source: Coingecko, MicroBit, as of 31 Mar, 2026. Investment involves risks. Past performance does not represent future performance.

From a sentiment and capital flow perspective, March was still dominated by weak risk appetite and depressed market psychology. After five consecutive months of price declines, both sentiment and valuations had been driven to historically depressed levels, leaving ample room for a more meaningful relief rebound; this was quickly evidenced when Iran acknowledged a halt in hostilities, after which BTC prices rebounded sharply and once again approached the 72k level.

Figure 5. Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Source: Coinglass, MicroBit, as of 9 Apr, 2026

Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs recorded their first monthly net inflow of the year in March, with cumulative subscriptions reaching approximately $1.32bn by month-end. This was mainly driven by investors viewing BTC prices as attractive after an extended drawdown, while the Iran war and elevated gold prices encouraged profit-taking in traditional safe havens and a rotation of capital into BTC ETFs as an alternative store-of-value exposure.

Figure 6. Total BTC Spot ETFs Net Inflow^[1]

Source: Coinglass, MicroBit, as of 9 Apr, 2026

[1] Net Inflow of total BTC Spot ETFs listed in the US.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, with the Iran conflict now largely de‑escalated and broader risk appetite gradually returning, we expect investor interest in risk assets to continue recovering. The BTC correlation profile and behavior suggest a hybrid role within diversified portfolios. After stabilizing near recent lows, BTC is starting to show signs of an upward tilt.

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